乙二醇日报：乙二醇去库难提振盘面，等待淡季尾声情绪修复机会-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, facing pressure from cost logic and weak supply - demand reality. The market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside potential, and attention should be paid to coal chemical plant maintenance plans and the recovery rhythm of terminal textile orders [2][23] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract rose slightly by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper backwardation in the far - month contracts [1] - 持仓与成交: The position of the main contract decreased by 6034 lots to 218,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 13.96% to 90,000 lots, showing a decline in market participation and a shift to a wait - and - see attitude [1] - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 63.09%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants unchanged. However, the profits of naphtha - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were in losses [1] - 需求端: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season without significant improvement [1] - 库存端: The inventory at the East China main port decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons. The port shipment volume remained high, but the recent arrival volume increased for two consecutive weeks to 16.87 tons [1] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The main contract price of MEG futures rose by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market rose by 15 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton [4] - 价差情况: The MEG basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 73 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton [4] - 利润情况: The profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and coal - based production were in losses, with the coal - based profit remaining at - 214 yuan/ton [4] - 开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained unchanged [4] - 库存与到港量: The East China main port inventory decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 0.97 tons to 16.87 tons [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - 市场商谈情况: On August 6, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained firm in the afternoon, with no reported transactions [5] - 地区市场报价: The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton, the quotation in the South China market was raised, and the East China price was around 4492 yuan/ton [5] - 价格影响因素: The increase in international crude oil and coal prices strengthened cost support. With domestic and foreign plant production cuts, the basis was firm, and the market price rose [5] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]