集装箱运输市场日报：期价如预期小幅震荡-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) fluctuated slightly. By the close, except for the EC2512 and 2604 contracts which rebounded slightly, the prices of the other monthly contracts declined slightly. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 43 lots to 27,706 lots, the short positions decreased by 174 lots to 33,222 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 26,940 lots to 31,894 lots (bilateral). The futures price fluctuated as expected, but some major shipping companies (CMA CGM) were still lowering the spot cabin quotes for the European Line, so the near - month contracts declined slightly. For the future, it is expected that the probability of EC returning to a fluctuating and slightly declining or fluctuating trend is relatively high; in the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly declining [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - Position Management: For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about the decline in freight rates, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1500 - 1600 [1]. - Cost Management: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or are about to enter the peak season, and hope to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - Maersk's Q2 2025 performance was strong, with revenue increasing by 2.8% year - on - year and EBIT reaching $845 million. Although it declined quarter - on - quarter, the overall performance was on par with the same period last year. The second - half guidance was raised, mainly due to the continuous strength of the terminal business, the increase in the shipping volume of the shipping segment, the enhanced profitability of the logistics and service business, and the continuous optimization of operations and strict cost control in each business segment. Given the stronger resilience of demand in non - North American markets, Maersk decided to raise its full - year 2025 financial guidance. The shipping volume increased by 4.2% year - on - year, mainly from Asian exports. Although the freight rate was still under pressure, it had rebounded within the quarter. The Gemini cooperation alliance was fully implemented in June, and the network reliability score exceeded the 90% target in the first month [2]. 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretation) - CMA CGM continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for the European Line in mid - August, and the new weekly spot cabin opening quotes of MSK for the European Line declined again [3]. 3.4 EC Basis, Price, and Spread - EC Basis: On August 7, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 225.16 points, with a daily decline of 1.40 points and a weekly increase of 30.20 points; the basis of EC2510 was 877.46 points, with a daily decline of 0.30 points and a weekly decline of 14.00 points; etc. [3][4]. - EC Price and Spread: The closing price of EC2508 was 2072.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 2.30%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1420.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly decrease of 0.33%; etc. The spread between EC2508 - 2512 was 309.5 points, with a daily decrease of 10.4 points and a weekly decrease of 119.8 points; etc. [4]. 3.5 Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 21, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1595, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2670, an increase of $20 compared to the previous period. For some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the first and middle of August, the total quote for 20GP was $1810, a decrease of $75 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3220, a decrease of $125 compared to the previous period. In the second half of August, for some sailings of CMA CGM from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1860, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3320, a decrease of $25 compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: The European route was at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 18.7 points or 0.81% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at 1130.12 points, a decrease of 153.89 points or 11.99% compared to the previous value [7]. - SCFI: The European route was at $2051/TEU, a decrease of $39 or 1.87% compared to the previous value; the US - West route was at $2021/FEU, a decrease of $46 or 2.23% compared to the previous value [7]. - XSI: The European Line was at $3386/FEU, a decrease of $3 or 0.09% compared to the previous value; the US - West Line was at $2018/FEU, a decrease of $90 or 4.3% compared to the previous value [7]. - FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index: It was at $2229/FEU, a decrease of $73 or 3.17% compared to the previous value [7]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 6, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.336 days, a decrease of 0.095 days compared to August 5; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.721 days, a decrease of 0.169 days; etc. [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On August 6, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.987 knots, an increase of 0.193 knots compared to August 5; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.792 knots, a decrease of 0.024 knots; etc. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, an increase of 8 compared to August 5 [22].