聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From the PE fundamentals, the near - term pressure is still high as downstream orders haven't improved and restocking demand is limited. Although there was a short - term increase in speculative demand on Monday and Tuesday this week, today's trading volume dropped significantly. Also, PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory reaching a historical high. So, there is still significant pressure above PE. However, from the expected level, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to gradually recover in August, driving demand to pick up. Therefore, PE doesn't have a strong downward drive either. In conclusion, PE is mainly affected by external factors recently and lacks its own directional drive [4] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price Prediction and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7200 - 7400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 9.94% and its historical percentile (3 - year) at 11.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price drops: To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2509, sell, 25%, entry range 7350 - 7400) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs; they can also sell call options (L2509C7400, sell, 50%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and purchasing according to orders: To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2509, buy, 50%, entry range 7150 - 7200) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (L2509P7200, sell, 75%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the polyethylene price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Near - term pressure on PE fundamentals is high due to poor downstream orders and limited restocking demand. Although there was short - term speculative demand, today's trading volume decreased. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August [4] 利多解读 - The "anti - involution" policy drives up the price of coking coal, providing cost support for polyolefins. The demand is expected to improve after August [5] 利空解读 - Jilin Petrochemical's recent production launch. The current restocking willingness of downstream is limited, and the spot price lacks support. PE inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, with a large increase in LLDPE inventory [6] Daily Data - Futures prices and spreads: On August 7, 2025, the plastic main basis was - 22 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 24 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3 yuan/ton. L01 contract was 7364 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton daily and 35 yuan/ton weekly. L05 contract was 7363 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton daily and 27 yuan/ton weekly. L09 contract was 7297 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton daily and 53 yuan/ton weekly. The L1 - 5 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 8 yuan/ton weekly. The L5 - 9 month spread was 66 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton daily and 26 yuan/ton weekly. The L9 - 1 month spread was - 67 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 18 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton daily and 10 yuan/ton weekly [7] - Spot prices and regional spreads: On August 7, 2025, the spot price in North China was 7210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and down 50 yuan/ton weekly. In East China, it was 7320 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 70 yuan/ton weekly. In South China, it was 7290 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 30 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - North China spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - South China spread was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] - Non - standard and standard product spreads: On August 7, 2025, the spread between HDPE film and LLDPE film was 475 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE hollow and LLDPE film was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The spread between HDPE injection and LLDPE film was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 25 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE drawing and LLDPE film was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE pipe and LLDPE film was 1425 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film was 2275 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 150 yuan/ton weekly [9] - Upstream prices and processing profits: On August 7, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 67 dollars/barrel, unchanged daily and down 4.81 dollars/barrel weekly. The US ethane price was 0.215 dollars/gallon, unchanged daily and up 0.0017 dollars/gallon weekly. The northwest coal price was 545 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The East China methanol price was 2395 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 25 yuan/ton weekly. The oil - based PE profit was 550.1823 yuan/ton daily and 900.9701 yuan/ton weekly. The coal - based PE profit was 363 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 211.25 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was - 355 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 200 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1849 yuan/ton, up 3.2524 yuan/ton daily and down 61.9009 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was 406.7415 yuan/ton daily and 371.4526 yuan/ton weekly [9]