下游跟进谨慎

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The current supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows that agricultural demand is mainly sporadic purchases, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise, which will increase the demand for urea in the future. However, the current market sentiment is low, and factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. The inventory has started to decline, and the anti - involution measures in the coal market support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is generally on the sidelines. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited due to the potential increase in industrial demand [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly in summer. Agricultural demand is sporadic, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise. The inventory has started to decline, and the coal market's anti - involution measures support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is cautious. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1,749 yuan/ton, closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume decreased by 7,152 lots to 115,300 lots. Among the top 20 institutional positions, the long - position decreased by 4,077 lots, and the short - position decreased by 5,702 lots. Some institutions increased or decreased their net long or short positions. Spot: The spot market sentiment cooled, and prices stabilized. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][5] Basis and Supply - Demand Data - Basis: Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the September contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On August 7, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.62%. Demand: From August 1 to August 7, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the previous week, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [9][10][14] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]