沥青策略：高开下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply and demand sides have various influencing factors, and policies are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Sections Strategy Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 241.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9 million tons (5.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 35.3 million tons (17.1%) [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week and is at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have shown weak fluctuations, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of ten key industries' (including petrochemical and building materials) stable - growth work plans will be released soon. Policies such as phasing out 20 - year - old backward petrochemical and chemical plants are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 0.31% to 3,528 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,511 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,556 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest by 712 to 211,556 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract dropped to 222 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Xinjiang Meihuite and some Shandong refineries resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared to January - May 2025 but remained negative. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, getting out of the consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending August 1, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints [4]. - Policy and finance: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.08 billion yuan year - on - year [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared to the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].