Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. [2] - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the output of steel mills will increase in August. [2] - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, and the market's purchasing willingness has recovered. [2] - Recently, the destocking of domestic stainless steel has been good, the market inventory pressure has been reduced, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,366 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 581; the position volume of the main contract is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423. [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,600 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300. [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 193,200. [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 26,900. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300. [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 303.6432 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800, with a month - on - month increase of 1,000. [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,900; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000. [2] Industry News - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imported products containing semiconductors, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US are exempted. [2] - The US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the basis of the existing tariffs due to the continuous differences in the US - Japan trade agreement. [2] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [2] - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded. [2]