Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current market shows a weak supply - demand balance. The supply - side capacity utilization is rising, while the demand - side experiences a seasonal decline in new energy vehicle sales but an enhanced long - term demand expectation from emerging applications. The rapid convergence of the basis indicates a narrowing of the spot - futures arbitrage space, and the continuous increase in open interest implies intensified divergence. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the core suppressing factors being the mainly rigid demand in the spot market and the expected resumption of mines in Jiangxi. However, the downside of the market may be supported by technical buying and long - term demand prospects [3] Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data: On August 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 1,780 yuan/ton to 69,620 yuan/ton. The basis weakened significantly, narrowing from 3,810 yuan/ton to 2,030 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased by 11.08% to 257,770 lots, reaching a recent high, with intense long - short competition. The trading volume decreased slightly by 2.71% to 425,359 lots, and market activity cooled slightly [1][5] - Supply - Demand and Inventory: The weekly capacity utilization of lithium carbonate increased by 1.72 percentage points to 63.92%, driven by the increased production of the salt lake lithium extraction process. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable. In the long - term, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment in late July, which may force traditional lithium salt enterprises to upgrade their technologies. Downstream demand was divided. In July, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 17% month - on - month to 789,000 units. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.48%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, with continuous destocking for two weeks but at a slower pace [2][5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate on August 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous day or previous period are presented in a table, along with the capacity utilization and inventory changes of lithium carbonate and the prices of some battery cells [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotation: On August 6, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,731 yuan/ton, down 257 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan/ton, both down 250 yuan/ton. In August, the procurement demand in the market showed a warming trend, but actual transactions were mainly rigid demand due to the strong basis in the spot market. Downstream enterprises remained cautious and did not show obvious inventory restocking behavior. Information on mines in Jiangxi has not been officially confirmed [6] - Downstream Consumption: According to the Passenger Car Association data on July 30, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 789,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase but a 17% month - on - month decrease. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.258 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year - on - year increase but a 20% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.264 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [7] - Industry News: In 2025, the humanoid robot market exploded, with a large number of capital inflows. On July 22, Hive Energy's chairman revealed that the company was promoting the R & D and mass production of solid - state batteries, planning to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid - state battery on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in Q4 2025, which would be supplied to BMW MINI's next - generation models in 2027. Recently, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state lithium battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment [8][9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, and battery cell prices, along with their data sources [10][14][16][18][20][23][26]
资金流入推动基差收敛，碳酸锂短期底部初露迹象
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:14