瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. The resumption of production in the southwest production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear. There is a large potential for production capacity release, and a significant price rebound may trigger more idle capacity restart, increasing supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. The spot price of organic silicon is rising, the production profit is slightly declining, and the start - up rate is rising, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream demand has declined significantly. Although production increased slightly last week, the increase is limited, and subsequent capacity mergers and reorganizations are expected to intensify. Potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, with little demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries is still slowing down [2] - The main contract of industrial silicon has switched to 2511. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the position of the main contract is 224,390 lots, an increase of 1,5654 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,415 lots, a decrease of 1,089 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,580 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 15, an increase of 10 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 595 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, an increase of 5,500 tons; social inventory is 552,000 tons per week, an increase of 10,000 tons; imports are 2,211.36 tons per month, an increase of 71.51 tons; exports are 52,919.65 tons per month, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.08%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will conduct special energy - saving inspections on 41 polysilicon enterprises, and requires localities to report inspection results by September 30 [2] - The resumption of production in the southwest industrial silicon production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear [2]