Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a short - term volatile and bullish pattern. Given the background of potential interest rate cuts by the FOMC this year, the overnight US dollar index and long - term US Treasury yields have corrected. Driven by the sentiment of gold - silver ratio repair, silver prices may show more resilience recently [3]. - If the CPI data in the next few months reflects the substantial impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices may be boosted due to the increasing risk of economic stagflation in the US. Key data to watch include the US New York Fed inflation expectation index and last week's initial jobless claims data. A significant increase in jobless claims and rising inflation expectations may further intensify market concerns about economic stagflation and be beneficial to gold prices [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a strategy of buying on dips in the long term, while paying attention to risk control. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 785.02 yuan/gram, up 1.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 76 yuan [3]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 217,630 lots, up 2,418 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 378,070 lots, up 4,694 lots [3]. - Net Positions of Top 20: The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 170,427 lots, up 2,102 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 103,977 lots, up 7,502 lots [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,045 kilograms (no change); the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,150,338 kilograms (no change) [3]. 现货市场 - Spot Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 779.9 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 5.12 yuan/gram; the silver spot price is 9175 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 83 yuan/kilogram [3]. Supply - Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings are 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15,112.28 tons, up 67.81 tons [3]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 223,596 contracts, down 29,442 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 59,407 contracts, down 1,213 contracts [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The quarterly total supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, down 0.96%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.46%, down 0.02% [3]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for gold is 18.56%, down 0.46% [3]. Industry News - Tariff Policy: US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, making the total tariff rate reach 50%. The new 25% tariff will take effect in 21 days, and the first - round 25% tariff will take effect this Thursday. Trump also plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, but companies building factories in the US will be exempted [3]. - Diplomatic Efforts: Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. - Fed's Stance: Fed's Daly said that policy may need to be adjusted in the next few months. The labor market slowdown is unwelcome, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation in a way that requires monetary policy intervention. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that the US economic slowdown may make short - term interest rate cuts appropriate, and he still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of this year [3].