黑色产业数据每日监测-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today, with coking coal leading the gains, while the terminal demand is weak due to weather conditions. Steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand support still exists. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and inventory changes, and there is an obvious seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures are generally bullish today. The rebar closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot-rolled coil closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; the iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal leading the gains by over 2% [1] Market Analysis - In terms of the industrial chain, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 1.37536 million tons this week, reaching a more than two-month high; the total output increased by 17,900 tons to 869,210 tons, and the apparent demand decreased month-on-month. Specifically, the social inventory of the five major varieties all increased to varying degrees. The inventory of rebar at steel mills increased by 3.73% month-on-month, and its total inventory increased by 1.9% to 556,680 tons, while the output increase reached 4.79%, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month-on-month; the output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.45%, the total inventory increased by 2.49% month-on-month, and the apparent demand decreased by 137,900 tons or 4.31% to 306,210 tons, reaching a nearly six-month low [1] - Steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the blast furnace hot metal has only decreased slightly, with demand support still existing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a more than nine-month high. The blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46% for the third consecutive week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 240,710 tons, but the year-on-year increase still reached 1.73%. Environmental protection restrictions will be implemented in the northern region for at least two weeks during the September 3 parade, which may suppress the demand for iron ore. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy restrictions [1] - The global iron ore shipments decreased again. From July 28 to August 3, the total global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.391 million tons to 30.618 million tons week-on-week, but there is an expectation of a seasonal rebound in August. In addition, benefiting from the arrival of the previous shipment increments at ports, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China increased by 3.027 million tons to 26.224 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 13%. As of last Monday, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 143.1097 million tons, an increase of 292,400 tons compared with the previous Monday, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overseas trade uncertainties still exist, and the domestic anti-involution sentiment has cooled down. Currently, iron ore generally follows coking coal, and the supply-side disturbances of coking coal still exist. The strengthening of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The recent significant weakening of steel mill profits has made the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal more prominent [1]