国际贸易数据点评：新关税形势下出口走强能否延续？

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from June, continuing the upward trend since May[3] - Exports to ASEAN rose by 16.6% year-on-year, while exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, marking a significant recovery[3] - Exports to the US fell by 21.7%, a decline deepening by 5.5 percentage points, indicating increased tariff impacts[3] Import Dynamics - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, a significant improvement of 3.0 percentage points, driven primarily by recovering crude oil prices[4] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to 7.4%, improving by 6.8 percentage points compared to previous months[4] - However, imports of processing trade intermediate goods and capital goods saw a decline, contributing to a 0.6 percentage point drop[4] Trade Policy Implications - The US extended the tariff relief period for China by 90 days, which is expected to marginally boost exports of electromechanical products and mid-range consumer goods[5] - The imposition of 15% tariffs on other major trading partners may enhance China's export price competitiveness but could weaken demand from these economies[5] - The potential impact of increased tariffs on Mexico and Vietnam may affect China's semiconductor and machinery exports due to established supply chains[5] Risk Assessment - The report suggests that while a significant decline in exports is not anticipated, caution is advised due to the complex and evolving trade policy landscape[5] - There is a risk that global trade policy uncertainties could lead to lower-than-expected export growth[5]