盘面持续回暖,有色偏强运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:28
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight decline in open interest. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and a positive domestic atmosphere are favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, on August 7th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. With the domestic market warming up again, copper prices may continue to rise [5]. - Aluminum: Last night, aluminum prices opened higher and maintained a strong and volatile consolidation during the day, with open interest continuously increasing. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up, and since aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, aluminum rods are in a state of inventory accumulation, and electrolytic aluminum has also seen inventory build - up. Despite the bearish industrial situation, the positive macro environment is expected to drive the futures price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the July high [6]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices rose with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel approached the 122,000 yuan mark. The positive domestic atmosphere recently has led to a strengthening of nickel prices, and there is a strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close their positions. The downstream stainless - steel industry is operating strongly. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 122,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - Copper: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the 31st and a decrease of 1,000 tons from the 4th [9]. - Aluminum: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 549,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the 31st and an increase of 2,000 tons from the 4th [10]. - Nickel: On August 7th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,170 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,220 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,470 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][31][27]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][41][42].