山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - Core Logic - Risk - Aversion Attribute: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - Monetary Attribute: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - Commodity Attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Data Summary - Prices: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - Basis, Spreads, and Ratios: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - Positions and Inventories: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - Core Relationship: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - Current Situation: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Data Summary - Prices: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - Positions and Inventories: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute Key Indicators - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - Safe - Haven Attribute - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].