Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Short-term may continue to fluctuate. August 7 Risk Management Daily Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The bottom support of nickel ore is limited, the production and shipment of nickel ore in the Philippines are still at a high level, and there is no obvious adjustment in the short-term premium in Indonesia. The price of ferronickel continued to strongly correct during the day, with a strong willingness to support the price on the supply side and a generally bullish sentiment among traders recently, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remains to be seen. The salt plants in the new energy chain have had some support recently, with an increase in the demand of some downstream precursor plants and a certain increase in transactions. Stainless steel once again reached the 13,000 mark during the day, but the spot market followed the increase limitedly, and downstream buyers still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced resources. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continues. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [5]. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai nickel price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20-day rolling) is 15.17%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 3.2% [3] - Stainless steel price range forecast: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, current volatility (20-day rolling) is 9.27%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - Inventory management: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of the NI main contract); sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [3] - Procurement management: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [3] Stainless Steel - Inventory management: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of the SS main contract); sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [4] - Procurement management: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market; sell put options and buy out - of - the money call options according to the procurement plan [4] Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The bottom support of nickel ore is limited, the production and shipment of nickel ore in the Philippines are still at a high level, and there is no obvious adjustment in the short - term premium in Indonesia. The price of ferronickel continued to strongly correct during the day, with a strong willingness to support the price on the supply side and a generally bullish sentiment among traders recently, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remains to be seen. The salt plants in the new energy chain have had some support recently, with an increase in the demand of some downstream precursor plants and a certain increase in transactions. Stainless steel once again reached the 13,000 mark during the day, but the spot market followed the increase limitedly, and downstream buyers still hold a wait - and - see attitude towards high - priced resources. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continues. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [5] 利多 and利空 Factors 利多 Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - Ferronickel transactions are constantly warming up [7] 利空 Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore increases, and the bottom support is loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [7] Market Data Nickel - Futures prices: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 780 yuan (1%); the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 15,130 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars (0.08%) [7] - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 96,611 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8,771 lots (9.99%); the open interest is 81,103 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,949 lots (- 5.75%) [7] - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 20,687 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 102 tons (- 0.49%) [7] - Basis of main contract: The basis of the main contract is - 1,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan (19.5%) [7] Stainless Steel - Futures prices: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65 yuan (1%) [8] - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 85,499 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,480 lots (4.24%); the open interest is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462 lots (- 2.93%) [8] - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423 tons (0.41%) [8] - Basis of main contract: The basis of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan (8.06%) [8] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons compared with the previous period [9] - LME nickel inventory: 211,212 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with the previous period [9] - Stainless steel social inventory: 966.2 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period [9] - Nickel pig iron inventory: 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons compared with the previous period [9]
8月7日风险管理日报：镍、不锈钢：短期或延续震荡-20250807
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:48