GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-07 11:12Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1][9]. Core Insights - The restructuring of the North and South Shipbuilding is entering a practical phase, with unified management, resource synergy, and industrial chain integration expected to accelerate [2]. - As the decline in orders narrows, ship price resilience emerges, and freight rates recover, the industry's profitability conditions are marginally improving, with restructuring synergies likely to amplify the company's profit elasticity during high prosperity cycles [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the restructuring of North and South Shipbuilding is entering a practical phase, which is expected to enhance management integration and resource synergy, thereby strengthening competitive advantages [4]. - The current decline in new ship orders is narrowing, with ship price resilience and recovering freight rates contributing to continuous improvement in profitability [4]. - Key companies to watch include China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Zhenhua Heavy Industries [4]. Industry Performance - China Shipbuilding expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected to be between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.25% to 119.49% [4]. - China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry anticipates a net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 181.09% to 237.30% [4]. - The industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in prosperity, with global new ship orders in July at 6.12 million DWT, down 39.94% year-on-year, while new orders in China were 5.05 million DWT, down 18.16% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization trend [4]. - The global new ship price index for July 2025 is reported at 186.65, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.25%, showing a narrowing decline [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached 1921 points on August 5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.55% [4].