冠通每日交易策略-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, downstream demand is weak, putting pressure on copper prices, but low inventory and Fed rate - cut expectations provide support, with the lower - bound support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7] - For lithium carbonate, with supply contraction expectations and cost support, along with increased demand, the market will have wide - range fluctuations [8] - For crude oil, due to OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors, there is downward pressure in the medium - long term, and fluctuations are large [11] - For asphalt, with开工 rate changes and policy influence, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [12][13] - For PP, considering downstream开工 rate, cost, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastic, with开工 rate and demand conditions, it is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15][16] - For PVC, facing supply, demand, and inventory issues, it is expected to decline while fluctuating, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17] - For coking coal, with supply and demand factors, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but there is limited downside space later [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 7th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends. Lithium carbonate rose over 5%, jujube and coking coal rose over 2%, and coke rose nearly 2%. Polysilicon and caustic soda fell over 2%, and urea and ferrosilicon fell over 1%. In stock index futures, most contracts fell, while in treasury bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat [4] - As of 15:25 on August 7th, in terms of capital flow, CSI 300 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while soybean oil 2509, rapeseed oil 2509, and iron ore 2509 had capital outflows [4] Specific Product Analysis Copper - The market is affected by supply and demand. Supply is affected by Chilean copper mine events and production increases, while demand is weak. Low inventory supports prices, and the price is expected to be under pressure with support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and went up. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. With supply contraction and cost support, along with increased demand, the market will fluctuate [8] Crude Oil - In the seasonal peak season, inventory changes are complex. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and geopolitical factors increase downward pressure and fluctuations [9][11] Asphalt - Supply side:开工 rate rebounded but is still low. August production is expected to decrease. Demand is restricted by funds and weather. Cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate [12][13] PP - Downstream开工 rate is low. Cost is affected by oil price changes. Supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastic -开工 rate decreased slightly. Downstream开工 rate is low. Cost is affected by oil prices. Supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15][16] PVC - Supply开工 rate is high, demand is weak, inventory is high, and new capacity is added. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17] Coking Coal - It opened high and went up. Supply is affected by domestic inspections and high Mongolian coal imports. Demand is affected by downstream production. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Urea - It opened low and was under pressure. Supply is abundant, demand is currently weak but may increase later. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short term with limited downside space [20]