南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is dominated by the mining license issue in Jiangxi. If it remains unresolved, significant market fluctuations may occur. The market has two logics: one is a potential "futures up - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" chain during price rebounds; the other is a "lithium salt down - ore price down - lithium salt down again" negative feedback during price declines. In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to first rise in Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, mining license issues, and off - season demand, then fall in Q4 as production increases after technical upgrades [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment and unresolved mining license issues; negative factors are high future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium salt and cells, and cost reduction from technological upgrades [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The short - term strong support level for the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 42.2%, and its historical percentile in 3 years is 73.5% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - Inventory Management: For high - inventory situations with potential for inventory impairment, sell 20% of LC2511 lithium carbonate futures, sell 20% of call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - Procurement Management: For future procurement plans, buy lithium carbonate forward contracts according to the plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - Futures Main Contract: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 72,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,680 yuan (3.85%) and a weekly increase of 4,020 yuan (5.89%). The trading volume is 766,669 lots (an 80.24% daily increase and 46.91% weekly increase), and the open interest is 289,832 lots (a 12.44% daily increase and 26.36% weekly increase) [8]. - LC2601 Contract: The closing price is 72,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,560 yuan (3.66%) and a weekly increase of 3,460 yuan (5.00%). The trading volume is 129,077 lots (a 78.65% daily increase and 12.79% weekly increase), and the open interest is 112,441 lots (a 4.61% daily decrease and 12.77% weekly increase) [8]. - Month - spread Changes: LC09 - 11 is - 380 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan (6%) and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan (19%); LC11 - 12 is - 280 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan (8%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (- 46%); LC11 - 01 is - 300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 120 yuan (- 29%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (- 44%) [10]. 3.4 Spot Data - Lithium Ore: The average prices of various lithium ores have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan (3.55%) and no weekly change; the average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazil CIF) is 750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12.5 US dollars (1.69%) and a weekly decrease of 15 US dollars (- 1.96%) [16]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan/ton (a 0.22% daily increase and - 1.29% weekly decrease), and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan/ton (a 0.21% daily increase and - 1.25% weekly decrease) [19]. - Downstream Products: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different daily changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 32,535 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.18%) [24]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract is shown in the chart. The brand - based basis quotes of different companies for the LC2507 contract vary, with most having no daily changes [26][27]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 15,023 to 16,443, with different changes in each warehouse [30][31]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific numerical summaries are provided due to the graphical presentation of cost - profit data, but it includes production profit from purchased lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate [33].