棉花：美棉小幅下跌，郑棉维持震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume sharply declined, and the contract is in the process of position transfer. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand is still weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengzhou cotton's main 2509 contract decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume decreased significantly, and the contract is in the position - transfer stage. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,677 (-135) sheets, with registered warehouse receipts at 8,329 (-135) sheets and valid forecasts at 348 (+0) sheets [3]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that the global cotton trade volume will remain stable at 9.7 million tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 25.9 million tons, slightly exceeding the expected consumption of 25.6 million tons. India will maintain its position as the country with the largest cotton - planting area, accounting for 38% of the global total. China is expected to continue leading in cotton production, accounting for 24% of the global total, and remain the largest cotton consumer, with an expected consumption of 8.2 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total. The ICAC estimates the cotton price for the next season to range from 57 to 94 cents/pound, with a median of 73 cents/pound [3][4]. - As of August 4, 2025, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 98%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The flower positions were mainly on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, with an average boll number of 8.6, an increase of 1.4 from the previous period [4]. - US President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continuous import of Russian oil. The new tariff will take effect 21 days after August 7, and the comprehensive tax rate for some Indian goods will rise to 50% [4]. - The cotton - picking operation in South Texas, USA, has expanded, and there has been continuous rainfall in the southeastern cotton - growing area. In Brazil, the cotton - picking progress in the main production area continues to advance. As of August 1, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state increased by 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% month - on - month, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The situation of the war makes an immediate cease - fire unlikely. The international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand [16]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The main contract is in the position - transfer stage. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand remains weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16].