豆粕生猪：静待美农报告指引，豆粕期现波动收窄

1. Market Review - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13870 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 13.71 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day [2]. - CBOT US soybeans' main contract dropped 0.53% to 985 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The Midwest planting belt in the US will have rain this week, with favorable weather conditions. There were mostly dry conditions from last Friday to Sunday, and local showers on Monday. Temperatures were below normal before Monday and will gradually rise later in the week. The growth conditions for corn and soybeans are very favorable [3][4]. 3. Macro and Industry News - Analysts expect the USDA's August global agricultural supply - demand report to show that the global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 127.42 million tons [5]. - On August 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4433 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3884 yuan, down 42 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 32 yuan [5]. - On August 6, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume shrank. The total trading volume was 268,500 tons, down 1,689,900 tons from the previous day. The average trading price was 2988.85 yuan/ton, down 5.88 yuan/ton [5]. - Analysts expect the EU 27 and the UK's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season to be 20.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast [5]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.365 billion bushels, up from the 4.335 billion bushels forecast in July [6]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season will average 347 million bushels, and 349 million bushels for the 2025/26 season [6]. - Brazil exported 12,257,325.36 tons of soybeans in July, with a daily average export volume of 532,927.19 tons, up 9% from the same period last year [6]. - In July, the northern large - scale farms' completion rate was 94 - 97%, and about 95% in the southwest. The market is expected to remain weak in the early part of the month [6]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [7]. - In the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [7]. 4. Analysis and Strategies Soybean Meal - US soybean futures hit a new low, dragging down the overall soybean meal market. The market is awaiting the USDA's supply - demand report on August 13. US soybean ending stocks and production are expected to increase slightly, having a neutral - bearish impact [15]. - The domestic M09 contract of Dalian soybean meal is affected by the external market and oscillates downward, with support at 2970 yuan/ton. The M01 contract is relatively strong, with support at 3050 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot price of soybean meal is resistant to decline, and traders are strongly willing to hold prices. Feed enterprises' physical inventory of soybean meal is generally about a week, and their total position is maintained at 30 - 40 days [15]. Live Hogs - On the supply side, the supply may decrease at the beginning of the month and then recover. The government has proposed measures to control production capacity [18]. - On the demand side, the supply of hogs is sufficient, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but high temperatures still suppress demand [18]. - In the short term, the price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly and weakly [18].