国投期货能源日报-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend, poor current market operability, and it's recommended to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined in the given content - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): Not clearly defined in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly declined, and the market may turn to a weak trend dominated by the pessimistic supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continues to shrink. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, with low inventory supporting prices. LPG maintains a weak and volatile trend [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC09 contract dropping 0.97% during the day. The potential US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, causing the geopolitical risk premium to fade. Last week, US EIA crude inventories unexpectedly decreased by 3.029 million barrels, but the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is still loose. The market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand situation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC continued to decline, and fuel - related futures fluctuated weakly, with FU performing stronger than LU. In August, the arrival volume of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, and the ship refueling demand lacks support. Singapore's inventory remains high, and the diesel crack spread has continuously dropped by $7/barrel since the mid - July high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continues to shrink [2] Asphalt - The SC main contract continued to decline, while BU rose slightly in the opposite direction. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months, and Lanqiao Petrochemical's maintenance was postponed again. The sample refineries' shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remained stable. The factory inventory destocking slowed down, the social inventory increased slightly, and the overall commercial inventory remained flat month - on - month and at a relatively low level in recent years [3] LPG - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The chemical profit margin has stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply is relatively loose in July, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. Crude oil has weakened recently, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, maintaining a weak and volatile trend [4]