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软商品日报-20250807
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-07 11:35

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities facing various supply - demand and macro - economic situations. For most commodities, the current advice is to wait and see, except for timber which has a bullish outlook [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of inland warehouse cotton remained stable but with sluggish shipments. The cotton yarn market was generally quiet [2] - After continuous declines, cotton prices have stabilized. Low cotton inventories support prices, but weak downstream orders drag them down. The inventory digestion speed slowed in July, and processing profits are under pressure [2] - Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations may remain unchanged in the short term. There is a strong expectation of increased cotton production in Xinjiang in the new season, with more planting areas and favorable weather [2] - Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see. For spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy for the 9 - 11 contracts [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Due to less rainfall in July, the production progress accelerated, with increased cane crushing and sugar production year - on - year. However, due to previous heavy rainfall, the overall production progress is still slow, and some international institutions have lowered the annual production forecast [3] - In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. After entering July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, but the medium - term forecast from the European Meteorological Center suggests that rainfall may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season in Guangxi [3] - Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. As the production season nears its end, the remaining inventory in cold storage is low, and traders are eager to sell, leading to weak prices. The supply of early - maturing apples has increased, with prices starting high and then dropping [4] - Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples is average, and there is a shortage of high - quality products. As of August 1, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.2%. Last week, the de - stocking volume was 72,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.9% [4] - The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimates. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated strongly. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the overseas butadiene port price was stable. The prices in the Thai raw material market were mixed [6] - In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in the main Southeast Asian production areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased further, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants slightly decreased [6] - In terms of demand, last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires dropped significantly, and that of semi - steel tires continued to decline slightly, mainly due to plant maintenance or reduced production in some tire enterprises. Terminal market demand was weak, and tire inventories decreased [6] - In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 631,800 tons, and both bonded and general trade inventories declined. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 129,000 tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 147,000 tons [6] - In July, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5.9%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.8% [6] - Overall, downstream demand continues to weaken, rubber supply continues to increase, natural rubber inventories decline, and synthetic rubber inventories increase. Market sentiment remains stable. It is advisable to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian needles in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton; and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. In July, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 557,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 153,000 tons [7] - Currently, domestic port inventories are relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still weak. After entering August, the downstream may gradually enter the peak season, which may boost demand. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable [8] - In terms of supply, it is still the off - season for log shipments from New Zealand, and the arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs remains low. Although overseas prices have rebounded for two consecutive months, domestic spot prices are still weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8] - In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [8] - As of August 1, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory and less inventory pressure [8] - Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season approaches, logs will gradually be de - stocked, and short - term spot prices are expected to rebound, with futures prices likely to continue rising. It is advisable to maintain a bullish strategy [8]