农产品日报-20250807

Report Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Doupo: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Douyou: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market [1] - Caixin Oil: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear long trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather, showing different trends and uncertainties. For most products, there is no clear - cut trend currently, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information and market changes [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Douyi - Douyi prices rebounded from lows with a narrowing spread between Douyi and Douer, but face resistance during the harvest period. There will be a 32,000 - ton domestic soybean auction this Friday. Northeast weather is favorable for soybean growth, and imported soybeans have short - term weak prices and medium - term supply uncertainties [2] Soybean & Doupo - Uncertainty in Sino - US trade tariffs has led to higher Brazilian soybean premiums and slower domestic Q4 procurement. Oil mill crushing rates are stable, and Doupo inventory is at a yearly high. US soybean is in a weak oscillation with a possible early harvest. Doupo should be treated as an oscillating market before the tariff issue is clear [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - Domestic Douyou prices are volatile, and the market is waiting for US biodiesel policy guidance. The price spread between foreign and domestic Douyou is narrowing. Palm oil faces a production decline cycle in Q4, and there are uncertainties in the long - term supply of Douyou. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Caipo & Caixin Oil - Caipo's trend was first down then up, with positions shifting from near - month to far - month contracts. Canadian and EU rapeseed futures are weak. Caipo is supported by the aquaculture feed peak season but faces pressure if import expectations change. Caixin Oil has a lackluster fundamental outlook and should be treated neutrally [6] Corn - There will be a 199,300 - ton imported corn auction tomorrow. Since July, 11 auctions have totaled about 2.688 million tons with a declining transaction rate. New - season corn has a high probability of a bumper harvest. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig spot prices hit a yearly low, while the futures rebounded slightly. Planned Q4 slaughter is expected to increase, and the near - month futures are not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction in the far - month [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are weakly stable, and the December and January contracts are squeezing out high premiums. Spot prices need to pay attention to holiday demand and cold - storage egg releases. A market - neutral strategy is recommended, with better price support in H1 next year [9]