洞鉴光伏·8月刊：“反内卷”持续发酵，光伏底部反转节点来临

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing a shift from price competition to value competition due to government policies aimed at curbing "involution" [4][21][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights the government's strong stance on addressing "involution" in the photovoltaic sector, with multiple high-level meetings and policy announcements aimed at promoting fair competition and phasing out outdated production capacity [4][19][21]. - Prices across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain are beginning to rise, indicating a potential recovery in profitability. For instance, as of July 30, 2025, the price of polysilicon dense material and granular silicon reached 44 RMB/kg, marking increases of 22.22% and 27.54% respectively since early June [4][32]. - Export data shows a mixed performance, with inverter exports increasing by 7.40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while module exports decreased by 23.94% [4][56]. Summary by Sections Industry Chain: Price Increases and Profit Recovery - The report notes that various segments of the photovoltaic industry are experiencing price increases, with polysilicon prices rising significantly due to government interventions and market adjustments [4][30][32]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of the photovoltaic supply chain will improve as prices stabilize and rise, driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][28]. Industry Dynamics: Government Policies and Market Response - The government has issued strong signals to combat "involution," emphasizing the need for quality over price in the photovoltaic sector. This includes new regulations aimed at preventing below-cost pricing and promoting sustainable competition [4][19][21]. - The report outlines a timeline of key policy announcements that have reinforced the government's commitment to addressing "involution" and promoting a healthier market environment [4][20]. Export and Installation Data - In the first half of 2025, domestic inverter exports totaled 30.595 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase, while module exports saw a decline [4][56]. - Domestic installations reached 212.21 GW in the first half of 2025, a 107.07% increase year-on-year, although June saw a significant month-on-month decline in new installations [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polysilicon segment, such as Xiexin Technology and Tongwei Co., as well as major players in the photovoltaic supply chain like JinkoSolar and JA Solar [4][69]. - It also highlights the potential for companies involved in high-efficiency TOPCon technology and auxiliary materials to benefit from the ongoing industry adjustments [4][69].