A股市场2025年8月投资策略报告：政策巩固回稳向好，中期趋势有望延续-20250807

Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - In the first half of the year, GDP growth reached 5.3% year-on-year, supported by policies such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," as well as the overseas "export grabbing effect" [5][33] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with real estate investment being a major drag, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% [24][26] - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for stable economic growth and the implementation of effective policies to support the economy [34] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to 93.6% following disappointing employment data [39][40] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain loose and abundant, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [38][45] - The liquidity in the capital market has shown signs of improvement, with increased trading volumes and a rise in margin financing [51][83] Group 3: Capital Market Liquidity Environment - The A-share market has experienced a significant increase in trading volume and turnover rate, driven by favorable policies and improved market sentiment [51][83] - The July IPO fundraising level was three times higher than the average of other months this year, indicating a recovery in market capacity [75] - The net reduction in industrial capital reached 242.1 billion yuan in July, reflecting increased activity in the secondary market [75] Group 4: Market Strategy - The market is entering a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to influence price levels and performance [94] - Valuation is shifting from price-to-earnings (PE) to price-to-book (PB) ratios, with PB valuations generally below the 50th percentile [95][96] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term, with potential adjustments providing opportunities for stronger future gains [100]