Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways pattern [1] - Gold: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - Silver: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - Copper: Cautiously bearish [4] - Aluminum - related Metals: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - Nickel: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways pattern [6] - Steel and Iron Ore: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - Float Glass: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - Crude Oil: Bearish pattern [7] - Methanol: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - Cotton: Bearish pattern [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - Equity Index Futures: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - Treasury Bonds: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - Precious Metals: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - Silicon Energy: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - Steel and Iron Ore: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash and Float Glass: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - Crude Oil: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - Methanol: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - Polyolefins: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - Cotton: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - Rubber: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index Futures - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] Precious Metals - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - Aluminum - related Metals: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - Nickel: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] Lithium Carbonate - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] Silicon Energy - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] Steel and Iron Ore - Rebar: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - Iron Ore: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - Coke: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - Float Glass: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] Polyolefins - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] Cotton - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] Rubber - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]
兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.07-20250807
Xing Ye Qi Huo·2025-08-07 12:11