Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Zinc: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and there is a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2]. - The zinc market has an external - strong and internal - weak fundamental situation. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The downside space of lead is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6]. - Tin is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up at the MA60 moving - average line. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat compared to Monday, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. In the medium - term, it has a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. It is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and the SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The fundamental situation is external - strong and internal - weak. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the production of recycled lead in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The social inventory of lead has decreased by 180 tons to 71,100 tons. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [5] Nickel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The inventory of nickel iron is basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. It is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with a decrease in positions during the session. It is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Pay attention to the change of high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plan of large factories and the off - season consumption. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased volume, and the market trading contracted. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. After the rebound, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained stable. The expected output in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons. The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to increase by about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the demand for silicone is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure still exists. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly lower, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]
国投期货有色金属日报-20250807
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-07 12:12