天富期货生猪反弹、红枣劲升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend. Pig prices are rebounding due to policy - driven capacity reduction and expected demand growth during peak seasons. Jujube prices are rising strongly because of expected production decline and upcoming holiday stocking. Sugar prices continue to fall due to the expected increase in imported sugar. Other products like soybean oil, palm oil, etc., also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices are rebounding, supported by policy - driven anti - involution capacity reduction and expected demand growth during the back - to - school season and Mid - Autumn Festival. Jujube prices are rising strongly as high - temperature weather in production areas causes concerns about reduced new jujube production, and the stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has begun. Sugar prices continue to fall to new lows due to the expected increase in imported sugar [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs is oscillating upwards, reaching a one - week high. Although high - temperature weather still weakens consumption demand, with the temperature dropping after the Beginning of Autumn, fresh pork sales are expected to improve. The upcoming back - to - school season will boost centralized consumption, and farmers may hold back pigs for weight gain. The strategy is to hold a light long position in the main 2511 contract and close short positions in the near - month 2509 contract, with support at 13920 and resistance at 14060 [2]. 3.2.2 Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujube has risen strongly to a new high. High - temperature and dry weather in August (the fruit expansion period) in Xinjiang has raised concerns about reduced yields. Preliminary estimates suggest that new jujube production will be 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has started, which is expected to drive inventory clearance. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 10950 and resistance at 11350 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil continued to rise to a new high but reduced its gains. Domestic oil mills have high operating rates, resulting in high production and inventory. However, oil mills are actively exporting to relieve supply pressure, and the market still expects a supply gap in the future and an increase in demand in the second half of August. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8336 and resistance at 8500 [5]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expected increase in imported sugar. As the quantity of processed sugar increases, the de - stocking of domestic sugar may slow down, and the start of production in northern sugar mills in September will also add pressure. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5650 and resistance at 5699 [7]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to close down, undergoing high - level adjustment. The market expects an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports in the August 11 MPOB monthly supply - demand report, with high inventory pressure. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9076 [10]. 3.2.6 Corn - The main 2509 contract of corn continued to rebound from a low level but faced resistance. The continuous auction of imported corn by Sinograin and wheat substitution, along with weak downstream demand, still pressure the corn market. However, low inventory, low imports, and weather risks for new corn support the price rebound. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2250 and resistance at 2271 [11][13]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The main 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound from a low level but did not change the downward trend. The high inventory of laying hens (1.292 billion in July, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%) and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs exert supply pressure. However, some markets have bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drops. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3350 and resistance at 3410 [14]. 3.2.8 Bean Meal - The 2509 contract of bean meal first declined and then rose, continuing high - level fluctuations. High domestic oil - mill operating rates in July led to increased bean - meal output and inventory. However, the rising cost of imported soybeans and expected supply shortages in the future support the price. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3006 and resistance at 3050 [16]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed down, showing narrow - range fluctuations. Xinjiang cotton is growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although commercial inventory is at a low level, the expectation of issuing sliding - scale duty quotas is increasing, and downstream textile demand is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13600 and resistance at 13800 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples continued to reverse and rise, entering an upward trend. Apple inventory is low (57.61 million tons as of July 31, 41.05 million tons lower than last year, and 53.39 million tons as of August 6, continuing to decline). The price of early - maturing apples in the west is higher than last year. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 7900 and resistance at 8000 [20].