Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The concern about sanctions has weakened, and crude oil has broken through to a new low. The fundamentals of the oil market are bearish, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production significantly, weakening US refined oil demand, and increasing inventories. Technically, crude oil is in a short - term downward trend and may face accelerated decline [1][2]. - Various chemical products, including styrene, rubber, PX, PTA, PP, methanol, PVC, ethylene glycol, and plastic, are generally under bearish pressure in terms of fundamentals and technical analysis, with most suggesting holding short - term short positions [5][8][15]. 3. Summary by Related Categories (1) Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. US refined oil demand has been weakening, and inventories have been accumulating. The "recession expectation" trading tendency may return after the cold US non - farm payrolls in July. The attention to the August 8 deadline has decreased [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It broke through the lower edge of the late - July shock range today, with short - term resistance at 511. There was an opportunity to try short positions last night, with a stop - loss reference at 511 [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The cost of pure benzene remains under pressure. High profits in styrene have stimulated supply and new device launches, increasing supply pressure. Demand has been weak, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 7375. Short positions should be held [5]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Seasonally, rubber prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but supply has not increased despite normal weather. High tire inventories have led to weaker demand expectations than in previous years, and high - inventory pressure has continued to accumulate seasonally, driving the fundamentals downward [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 15120 and 15 - minute resistance at 14600. Short positions should be held [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: High tire inventories have led to weaker demand expectations. Supply capacity has been released due to device restarts, and the short - term low inventory of butadiene may turn bearish after more arrivals. The fundamentals are bearish [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 11550. Short positions should be held [12]. (5) PX - Logic: The downstream terminal's off - peak and peak season conversion has led to a slight increase in start - up, but overall, the upstream and downstream start - up changes are small. It may follow the direction of crude oil [15]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. Today's decline on reduced positions continued the downward path, with short - term resistance at 6825. Short positions should be held (partially take profit and wait to re - enter after a 15 - minute break) [15]. (6) PTA - Logic: The upstream and downstream start - up has remained stable, and inventory is neutral. It may follow the direction of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. Today's rebound and then decline on reduced positions continued the downward path, with short - term resistance at 4760. Short positions should be held [17]. (7) PP - Logic: During the off - season, downstream start - up has been weak. New capacity has been put into operation, and devices have restarted after maintenance, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are bearish, and attention should be paid to crude oil trends [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward structure after a short - term sharp decline. The resistance at 7195 is far, and the 15 - minute resistance at 7100 can be focused on first. Short positions should be held [19]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Port inventories have continued to accumulate, domestic devices have restarted after maintenance, and start - up has increased. Downstream demand is generally okay, with short - term contradictions being small [22]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/shock structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. Today's intraday shock, with short - term resistance at 2400. Short positions should be held [22]. (9) PVC - Logic: Some devices have restarted after maintenance, and terminal demand has remained weak due to the ongoing real - estate downturn and the off - season. After the exchange's position limit and the Politburo meeting, speculative funds have withdrawn, leading to a short - term downward correction [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's intraday shock did not change the downward path, with short - term resistance at 5070. Short positions should be held [24]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low inventories after continuous decline in port inventories provide short - term support, but terminal demand remains weak. The present situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the time when inventories start to accumulate [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's decline on increased positions, with short - term resistance at 4425. Short positions should be held [26]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Devices have restarted after maintenance, start - up has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, leading to large supply pressure. Downstream start - up has remained at a low level year - on - year, and supply - demand drivers are bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term shock/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a shock structure. The hourly - level structure is not clear, but the 15 - minute level has turned bearish again, providing an opportunity to enter short positions. Short - term short positions can be tried with a stop - loss at 7315 [30].
制裁担忧弱化，原油破位新低
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-07 12:38