棉花产业风险管理日报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton destocking during the off-season, and the adjustment of the China-US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, strategies include short - selling Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and offset production costs, and selling call options (CF509C14400) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [3]. - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, strategies include buying Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,700 to lock in procurement costs, and selling put options (CF509P13600) at 75% hedging ratio in the range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [3]. Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have significantly decreased, and reserve cotton has not been sold. The destocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. - Post - pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. Bearish Factors - Under the squeeze of spinning profits, the overall operating load of inland textile enterprises has further decreased, although Xinjiang textile enterprises' operation remains stable. There is still some pressure on downstream finished - product inventory despite a slight destocking recently [8]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth. There is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [8]. Market Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,835, down 15 (-0.11%); Cotton 05 at 13,785, down 20 (-0.14%); Cotton 09 at 13,670, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,765, down 25 (-0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 20,035, down 100% (unusual data); Cotton yarn 09 at 19,900, unchanged [7][9]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,521, up 33; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 50, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 115, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,050, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,698, down 50; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 586, down 20 [10]. - Domestic and foreign cotton price indices: CCI 3128B was 15,191, up 13 (0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,325, up 8 (0.06%); CCI 2129B was 15,475, up 10 (0.06%); FCI Index S was 13,696, up 84 (0.62%); FCI Index M was 13,480, up 59 (0.44%); FCI Index L was 13,180, up 59 (0.45%) [11].