原油：高开下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].