特朗普的财政钢丝：短期喘息与长期隐

Group 1: Short-term Fiscal Relief - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its debt-driven economic growth model[2] - Recent tariff agreements with major economies are expected to generate approximately $2.1 trillion in additional tariff revenue over the next decade, alleviating some fiscal concerns[2] - The Act is projected to boost U.S. GDP by 0.15% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with a long-term GDP expansion of 1.2%[8] Group 2: Long-term Concerns - U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025, exceeding 120% of GDP, with the "Big and Beautiful" Act expected to add an additional $3.4 trillion to the debt over the next decade[25] - Interest payments are projected to rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035, creating a significant fiscal burden[28] - The reliance on tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate to 11.4%, may lead to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and demand for non-essential imports, potentially limiting future tariff revenue growth[18] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soft Power - The U.S. government's unilateral policies have diminished its international credibility, affecting its global leadership role[28] - Traditional alliances are strained due to aggressive tariff policies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements, leading allies to reconsider their defense spending and reliance on the U.S.[28] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act and tariff policies are contributing to increased income inequality within the U.S., potentially undermining domestic political stability[19]