7月外贸数据点评：7月出口的“新主线”

Group 1: Export Data Overview - July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.8% and previous value of 5.8%[10] - Exports to the US fell by 5.6 percentage points to -21.6%, indicating a decline in "export grabbing" phenomenon[2] - Exports to emerging markets, such as Latin America (+9.8% to 7.8%) and Africa (+7.5% to 42.5%), showed significant recovery[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - July imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 0.3% and previous value of 1.1%[10] - Major commodities like copper (+16.2% to 18.0%), soybeans (+8.1% to 18.4%), and crude oil (+4.1% to 11.5%) saw increased import volumes, reflecting a recovery in domestic investment demand[44] - The import growth was primarily driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports[44] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" on August 7 may introduce uncertainty for exports in August[29] - The recent decline in port throughput further confirms the downward trend in export grabbing to the US and emerging markets[29] - Despite potential export declines, high levels of processing trade imports in July suggest that the drop in August may be relatively controllable[29]