宏观经济点评：非美地区需求或将主导未来出口走势

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month[2] - Imports also rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, compared to 1.1% previously[2] - The growth in exports is supported by indirect exports from countries like South Korea (+5.9%) and Vietnam (+17.7%) in July[2] Demand Dynamics - The demand from non-US regions may not be sustainable post-tariff implementation, as the US is set to enforce reciprocal tariffs starting August 7, 2025[2] - The resilience of demand from non-US regions is questioned, as historical trends show that a decline in US demand typically leads to reduced demand in regions like ASEAN and Africa[3] Structural Insights - The positive contribution to July's exports primarily came from raw materials, automobiles, and components, with significant contributions of 1.4, 2.6, and 1.9 percentage points respectively from the EU, ASEAN, and Africa[4] - However, there is a noted decline in exports of consumer electronics and automobiles compared to the previous month[4] Future Outlook - Short-term indicators suggest a decline in container shipments to the US, indicating a potential drop in exports to the US in August[5] - Long-term projections indicate that July may represent the peak for year-on-year export growth, with an increasing probability of accelerated decline in exports moving forward[5] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected declines in external demand and unforeseen policy changes that could impact trade dynamics[6]