债市阿尔法追踪：7 月：超长债显著下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. In the term dimension, there was negative alpha for Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years. In the sub - dimension, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt [1][2][10]. - In July, the bond market generally declined. For interest - rate bonds, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased, with the average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rising by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively. For credit bonds, the yields of high - duration credit bond varieties increased significantly, with the average yield of 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds rising by 14BP, the largest increase among credit bonds [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Each Variety Yield Panorama - Interest - rate bonds: In July, the yields of almost all interest - rate bonds increased. The average yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, and local government bonds rose by 5BP, 5BP, and 3BP respectively [11]. - Credit bonds: High - duration credit bond varieties had a significant increase in yields. The 20 - year, implicitly rated AAA urban investment bonds had an average yield increase of 14BP, the largest among credit bonds [11]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - Overall industry credit bonds: In July, all industry credit bonds declined, with an average net price change of -0.11%, and there was no obvious alpha. The transportation, urban investment, and construction industries had the largest net price declines, with monthly drops of 0.15%, 0.14%, and 0.14% respectively. Real estate bonds had the smallest decline, with a net price drop of 0.05% [1][17]. - Real estate bonds: In July, AA+ - rated real - estate bonds had obvious negative alpha; public enterprise real - estate bonds had obvious positive alpha. The average net price decline of AA+ real - estate bonds was -0.22%, significantly higher than other real - estate bond varieties. The average increase of public enterprise bonds was 0.35%, while other types of real - estate bonds had a net price decline. The top - rising bonds were those of Longhu and Greentown, with net price increases of about 1.7% and 1.2% respectively; the top - falling bond was that of Guangzhou Hejing, with a net price drop of 13.8% [20]. - Urban investment bonds: In July, all regional urban investment bonds declined, with an average change of -0.14%. Guangxi's urban investment bonds had the most significant decline, with a monthly drop of 0.26%, showing obvious negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA - rated urban investment bonds had negative alpha, with an average net price drop of 0.22%, significantly more than other - rated urban investment bonds [26]. - Financial bonds: In July, private - enterprise financial bonds had a significant net price decline, with an average monthly drop of 0.08%, the largest decline and showing negative alpha. In terms of ratings, AA+ - rated financial bonds had an average net price decline of 0.01%, significantly lower than the 0.08% of AAA - rated and 0.07% of AA - rated bonds. The top - rising bonds were 24 Wuxi Xinchuang PPN001 and 23 Chanrong 09, with net price increases of 1.65% and 1.62% respectively; the top - falling bond was 24 Guoxin Holdings MTN001B, with a net price drop of 1.08% [28]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - In July, Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years had negative alpha. They declined by 0.95%, with a significantly larger decline than other term and interest - rate bond varieties. The reasons were that ultra - long Treasury bonds had a high duration leverage, and the increase in yield led to a more significant price decline. Also, the yield increase of Treasury bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was higher than that of other interest - rate bond varieties [2][36]. - Among long - term representative bonds, the 23 Sanxia K2, an ultra - long credit bond, had the largest decline in July, with a monthly change of -1.77% [40]. 4. Sub - Alpha Tracking - In July, there was no alpha for commercial bank sub - debt. Insurance company bonds and commercial bank sub - debt declined by 0.14% and 0.16% respectively, with similar declines and higher than the 0.06% decline of commercial bank bonds. In terms of yield changes, the yield increases of insurance company bonds and secondary capital bonds were generally higher than those of commercial bank ordinary bonds [2][42]. 5. July Public Bond Fund Ranking - In July, hybrid bond - type secondary funds led other types of public bond funds in average change. The average change of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.86%, that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.25%, that of short - term pure bond funds was 0.09%, and that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was -0.03% [2]. - The top - five rising medium - and long - term pure bond funds in July were Chunhou Wenrong One - Year Fixed - Open, Fuguo Dingli Three - Month Fixed - Open Bond, etc. [56]. - The top - five rising short - term pure bond funds in July were Nanhua Ruiheng Medium - and Short - Term Bond A, Ping An 0 - 3 - Year Policy - Based Financial Bond A, etc. [57]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type primary funds in July were Guangda Medium - and High - Grade A, Tianhong Tianli E, etc. [58]. - The top - five rising hybrid bond - type secondary funds in July were Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One - Year A, Huashang Ruixin Regularly - Open, etc. [59].