2025年7月贸易数据点评：出口再超预期后，风险与韧性并存

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous period, while import growth was 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[10] - The trade surplus decreased, with exports showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.1% compared to June, but still higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, recording growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, driven by preemptive shipments ahead of tariff changes[17] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments, which could lead to a moderate decline in exports moving forward[34] - The report highlights that the resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment[34] - A significant risk factor is the unexpected weakening of the US economy, which could adversely affect export performance[43]