格林大华期货早盘提示-20250808

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [2] 2. Core View - In August, the downstream of methanol is still in the seasonal off - season. This week, the ports continued to accumulate inventory while the inland reduced inventory. The import volume is expected to increase significantly in July. With tight inland supply, considering the time window for port back - flow and coal cost support, the short - term methanol price will oscillate within the range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 1 yuan/ton to 2394 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 6 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 8657 lots to 247,600 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 11,765 lots to 305,700 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 81.6%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 70,000 tons, and that in South China increased by 47,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decrease [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 36,000 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. The olefin operating rate is 85.11%, a 1.5% increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.33%, unchanged; the methyl chloride operating rate is 85.5%, a 4.08% increase; the acetic acid operating rate is 89.2%, a 2.1% decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate is 41.6%, a 1.6% decrease; the MTBE operating rate is 66.6%, a 1.1% decrease [2] - Policy: On July 18, Xie Shaofeng, the chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at a press conference that it is necessary to strengthen the foundation of the industrial economy, implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, and promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The specific work plans will be gradually released in the near future [2] Market Logic - Due to the seasonal off - season of downstream methanol in August, port inventory accumulation, inland inventory reduction, expected significant import increase in July, tight inland supply, and coal cost support, the short - term methanol price will oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]