黑色建材日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment becomes rational, the steel price disk trend weakens, and if the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate policy is expected to continue to strictly control the increment. It is recommended to focus on the terminal demand repair and cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, the pressure is not significant, the demand support exists, and the short - term trend is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to terminal demand changes and possible pre - parade production restrictions [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be on the sidelines, and hedging positions can be opportunistically participated. In the future, they will face the situation of weakening marginal demand [8][9][10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the prices are in a volatile state, and it is necessary to be cautious when participating. Industrial silicon has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and polysilicon is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [13][14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass depends on real - estate policies and demand, and soda ash has supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait for high - short opportunities in the long term [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 93,491 tons, a net increase of 4,235 tons. The main contract position was 1.628167 million lots, a decrease of 24,402 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.31%). The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.428587 million lots, a decrease of 31,588 lots. In the spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in some regions decreased [2]. - Market Situation: The steel product market atmosphere warmed up, and export volume rebounded this week. Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. The overall market sentiment has turned rational, and the disk trend has weakened [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 793.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.19% (-1.50), and the position changed by -22,928 lots to 335,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.32 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.45% [5]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 million tons to 2.4032 million tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. The apparent demand of the five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Market Trend: On August 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated and slightly corrected, closing down 0.52% at 6,064 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.25% at 5,834 yuan/ton. The disk prices of both are above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, with loose and disordered K - line trends [8]. - Fundamental Situation: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment in cost. Ferrosilicon is also expected to face weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of rapid weakening of hot - rolled coil demand and the risk of a sharp decline in pig iron output [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.52% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 13,756 lots to 535,790 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were flat. The main contract has a certain basis. It has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and the price is weakly volatile [13][14]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.41% (-1,235). The weighted contract position decreased by 11,678 lots to 375,640 lots. The spot prices were flat. It is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and the price is in a high - level volatile state [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.95% month - on - month to 61.847 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days increased by 0.9 days to 26.4 days. The price decreased significantly with the cooling of market sentiment, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [18]. - Soda Ash: The spot price was 1,255 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 0.72% to 1.8651 million tons. The downstream demand was average, mainly for rigid procurement. The price oscillated widely with the coal - chemical sector, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].