研究所晨会观点精萃-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - Steel: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - Aluminum: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - Tin: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - Industrial Silicon: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - Polysilicon: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - Asphalt: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - PX: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - PTA: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - Short - fiber: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - Methanol: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - PP: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - LLDPE: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - Fats and Oils: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - Corn: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - Pigs: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].