宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250808

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - The report is optimistic about the short - term performance of both gold and copper, with a view of short - term strength for both metals [1][3][5]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger. Copper is also expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Yesterday, gold prices remained strong, with London gold approaching $3400 and Shanghai gold reaching above 785 yuan [3]. - Core Logic: In early August, the US non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, and inflation rebounded more than expected earlier, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving a rapid rebound in gold prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. On August 7, a new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the US took effect, reducing market risk appetite and also benefiting gold prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of London gold's sideways movement since the second quarter [3]. Copper - Price Performance: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, with little change in open interest [5]. - Core Logic: At the macro level, the domestic situation is favorable, but recent US economic data have continuously fallen short of expectations, so there is a risk of overseas recession trading. The US stock market opened high and closed low yesterday, and precious metals were strong, reducing market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday, which is beneficial to copper prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro environment and less impact from the industrial off - season, copper prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger sideways movement [5].