宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The demand is declining while the supply is expected to increase steadily. However, due to the good profit situation of steel mills, the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the oscillating adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. But the good profit situation of steel mills limits the decline of demand from its high level, providing support for the ore price. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased as expected, while the shipment from overseas miners has decreased. There is doubt about the continuous reduction under high ore prices. Domestic ore production is stabilizing, and the ore supply is expected to increase steadily. - Overall, the demand is continuously weakening and the supply is increasing steadily, but the good profitability of steel mills gives the ore price support, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the steel mill production restriction situation should be focused on [3].