Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous previous gains, but the general approach is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long run, with a possible short - term return to a volatile pattern. Precious metals prices are supported by Trump's influence on the Fed, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Base metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products each have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [3][5][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on August 8th. Huawei may launch a triple - folding eSIM phone, and eSIM services are resumed. Seven departments aim to make breakthroughs in brain - computer interface technology by 2027. Apple will invest 6000 billion dollars in the US in the next four years [2]. - Basis Point Ratios: The basis point ratios of different contracts for IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term despite short - term volatility [3]. Treasury Bonds - Quotes: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different increases. - News: China's July exports and imports increased year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan on Thursday [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - Quotes: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.23%, and the US dollar index is 98.00 [6]. - Market Outlook: Trump's influence on the Fed supports precious metals prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Quotes: LME copper closed down 0.04%, and Shanghai copper closed at 78360 yuan/ton. - Industry: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to have a limited upside in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [9]. Aluminum - Quotes: LME aluminum closed down 0.42%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20670 yuan/ton. - Industry: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, but the short - term upward movement is difficult, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - Quotes: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.97%. - Industry: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and domestic zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. The short - term consumption is weakening, and the price decline risk is rising [11][12]. Lead - Quotes: Shanghai lead index rose 0.19%. - Industry: Lead ore inventory is decreasing, and lead ingot supply is tightening. The short - term price is expected to be strong [13]. Nickel - Quotes: Nickel price rebounded slightly. - Industry: Nickel price is still anchored to nickel iron price. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - Quotes: Shanghai tin rose 0.38%. - Industry: Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak, with reference price ranges provided [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Quotes: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract rose 3.85%. - Industry: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The price is affected by capital games, with a reference price range provided [17]. Alumina - Quotes: The index fell 0.62%. - Industry: The supply is expected to be in excess. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference price range provided [18]. Stainless Steel - Quotes: The futures contract rose 0.50%. - Industry: The social inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Quotes: The contract rose 0.3%. - Industry: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Quotes: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - Industry: The supply and demand of rebar increased, and those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The inventory is rising, and the price may return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to pay attention to demand and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - Quotes: The futures contract fell 0.19%. - Industry: The supply is affected by overseas shipments, and the demand is related to iron water production. The short - term trend is not strong, and attention should be paid to demand and possible production restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price was flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies [27]. - Soda Ash: The spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Quotes: Manganese silicon fell 0.52%, and ferrosilicon fell 1.25%. - Industry: The short - term price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and choose hedging opportunities for hedging positions [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures contract fell 0.52%. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant initiatives [33][34]. - Polysilicon: The futures contract fell 2.41%. The price is affected by capacity policies and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to be cautious [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Quotes: NR and RU rebounded and then oscillated. - Industry: The tire industry has different operating rates. The rubber price is recommended to be traded with a slightly long - biased and fast - in - and - out strategy [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - Quotes: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all fell. - Industry: The fundamentals are healthy, but the seasonal demand will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42]. Methanol - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton. - Industry: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It can be considered as a short - position variety in the sector [43]. Urea - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton. - Industry: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [44]. Styrene - Quotes: The spot and futures prices rose. - Industry: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost to rise after the port inventory is reduced [45]. PVC - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 5 yuan. - Industry: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 18 yuan. - Industry: The supply and demand are changing, and the inventory is expected to increase. The short - term valuation may decline [48]. PTA - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 36 yuan. - Industry: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [49]. p - Xylene - Quotes: The 09 contract fell 38 yuan. - Industry: The load is high, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene PE - Quotes: The futures price fell. - Industry: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - Quotes: The futures price fell. - Industry: The price is expected to follow crude oil to rise in July, affected by supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Quotes: The domestic pig price continued to fall. - Industry: The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - Quotes: The egg price was mostly stable. - Industry: The supply is large, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Important Information: Malaysian palm oil export and production data, and Brazilian soybean planting area forecast are provided [56]. - Trading Strategy: The palm oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean meal and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [58][61]. Sugar - Quotes: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. - Industry: The import supply is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - Quotes: Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. - Industry: The downstream consumption is average, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish [64].
五矿期货文字早评-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-08 01:09