Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.79%[1] - Exports to economies excluding the U.S. increased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.6%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall export growth[1] - Key regions driving export growth included Latin America (+0.8 pct), South Korea (+0.5 pct), and Taiwan (+0.4 pct)[1] U.S. Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July, a decline of 5.6 percentage points compared to June, impacting overall exports by 3.3 percentage points[2] - Container shipping rates to the U.S. dropped approximately 28% in the last week of July compared to the last week of June, indicating a slowdown in trade[2] - The expected monthly export range to the U.S. is projected between $35.8 billion and $38.2 billion, with year-on-year growth unlikely to return to positive figures[2] Regional Export Dynamics - South Korea's exports grew by 5.9% in July, the highest rate this year, driven by semiconductor exports which rose by 31.6%[3] - Vietnam maintained a high export growth rate of 17.7% in July, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 26%[3] - The export growth of labor-intensive products, machinery, and high-tech products showed varying degrees of slowdown, with labor-intensive products declining to -0.6%[4] Import Trends - Total imports in July reached $223.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, up 3 percentage points from June[4] - Significant contributors to import growth included bulk commodities, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, with increases of 1.6, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively[4] - The import of crude oil and copper ore saw notable rebounds, while iron ore imports fell by 8.8%[4] Future Outlook - China's export resilience is expected to continue, with positive year-on-year growth anticipated from August to October 2025, despite potential short-term declines in November and December due to high base effects[6] - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs may further impact global trade dynamics, with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and potential tariff expansions to other economies[6]
7月出口加快,哪些品类在增长?
HUAXI Securities·2025-08-08 01:24