宁证期货今日早评-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The change of Fed officials will strengthen the future loose - policy orientation, which is positive for gold, but the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative for safe - haven assets. The rise of gold price may be supported by central bank gold purchases, and its future trend needs further observation [1]. - The soda ash market is generally weak, with glass demand support being inadequate. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on a short - term basis [2]. - Iron ore supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on pullbacks [4]. - Coking coal fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions and can support the price, with the price expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - Rebar prices are supported by cost but restricted by weak demand. The market is in a fierce long - short game, and the price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. - The pig market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade the LH2509 contract in a range or go long on the LH2511 contract in the long - term, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price. Short - term long trading is recommended [8]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to the increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [8]. - The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - Gold: The change of Fed officials and central bank gold purchases are positive factors, while the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative. The future trend needs further observation [1]. - Silver: The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut make silver fluctuate upward [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The market is weak, with glass demand support being insufficient. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on a short - term basis is an option [2]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol starts at a high level, with port inventory increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended [9]. - Polypropylene: Supply is abundant, and the market faces shipment pressure. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [10]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to range - bound. Going long on pullbacks is recommended [4]. - Coking Coal: Fundamentals have no prominent short - term contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - Rebar: Cost supports the price, but demand is weak. The price may fluctuate and adjust [5]. Agricultural Products - Pig: The market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Different trading and hedging strategies are recommended [6]. - Palm Oil: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is advisable [7]. - Soybean: Domestic soybeans have a firm spot price, and short - term long trading is recommended [8]. Others - Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds: The bond market has short - term upward momentum, and short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [8].