国新国证期货早报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No indication of the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of various futures and spot commodities on August 7, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity [1][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 7, A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18% at 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% at 2342.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation, closing at 4114.67, up 1.18 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's fifth - round price increase was implemented on Monday. Driven by the rapid rise in coal prices at the cost end, coke followed the upward trend, and the coking profit returned to the break - even point. Due to the upcoming military parade, production restrictions are expected, with potential supply and demand reduction in the second half of the month. It is expected that the first - round price cut will start in mid - to late August [5]. - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties increased. The supply side saw a slight decline in mine开工 rate due to stricter safety inspections, and the demand side was relatively healthy. The basis was - 215.5, down 31 [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by Brazil's weak export data in July, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was under pressure from short - sellers on Thursday. As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area increased compared to the same period last year, and Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of potential floods from August 10 - 12, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to rise slightly on Thursday. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to July increased by 20.8% [6]. Palm Oil - On August 7, palm oil prices oscillated within the previous day's range. The import cost of palm oil in China decreased, and the price inversion range narrowed. There were no new purchases in the domestic market last week [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined on August 7. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected. Domestically, on August 7, soybean meal futures oscillated. There was sufficient soybean supply, but concerns about future supply shortages remained. The price will continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to US weather and import conditions [8]. Live Pigs - On August 7, live pig futures rose. The current consumption demand is weak, but short - term support comes from reduced slaughter and some secondary fattening demand. In the medium term, the market is still in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and attention should be paid to policy and slaughter conditions [9]. Shanghai Copper - Due to weak economic data and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, and the US dollar index was weak. Coupled with a warm domestic industrial product atmosphere, Shanghai copper temporarily stabilized. In early August, it may still face pressure, but the downside space is limited [9]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13665 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports in July decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. Logs - The futures price of logs showed a certain trend, and the spot price was stable. The futures price was driven up by the increase in the external market price. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [11]. Steel - On August 7, steel futures prices were at certain levels. The cost of coking coal still strongly supported steel prices, but weak demand restricted the upward space. In the short term, steel prices may oscillate strongly with frequent ups and downs [11]. Alumina - On August 7, alumina futures closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable, but the market was inactive. The inventory was accumulating, and the price faced upward pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 7, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20750 yuan/ton. In the short term, it was under pressure, but with the expectation of a macro - level relaxation, it has the potential to rebound after the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory and consumption trends in August [12].