特朗普的美国梦系列5：财政蓝图：重估大美丽法案

Summary of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) - The OBBBA is a comprehensive policy initiative from Trump, focusing on tax reform, spending adjustments, and raising the debt ceiling, with a projected increase in deficit of $3.9 trillion over ten years[5]. - Tax cuts are the core of the OBBBA, extending and expanding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), while tax increases are minimal, expected to reduce the deficit by only $0.7 trillion[5][21]. - Spending cuts primarily target healthcare, education, food assistance, and energy, with healthcare reforms expected to save approximately $1.1 trillion over ten years[5][24]. - The act increases military and immigration spending, adding approximately $0.17 trillion and $0.18 trillion to the deficit, respectively[5][29]. - The debt ceiling is raised from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion, preventing technical default risks on U.S. debt[5][32]. Economic Impact - The OBBBA is projected to have a limited long-term impact on GDP, with estimates suggesting a change between -0.1% and 1.3% over ten years, translating to an average annual GDP growth boost of less than 0.2%[6][36]. - The act's short-term economic stimulus is significant, particularly during Trump's term, with a notable GDP increase expected in 2026[6][48]. - The structure of the act creates a "front-loaded" deficit increase during Trump's presidency, potentially leading to fiscal tightening for the next administration if no new expansionary measures are implemented[6][57]. Social Implications - While the act provides short-term tax relief for families, it also reduces welfare benefits, which may exacerbate income inequality in the long run[5][8]. - The combination of tax cuts and welfare reductions could lead to a widening wealth gap, particularly affecting low-income households[5][8][27].