Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in the same period of previous years, indicating overall downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be introduced. Export growth has rebounded but faces downward pressure as the effects of rush - exporting and re - exporting fade. Overseas, the next few months are crucial for inflation trends. Although the Fed chairman's stance is hawkish, the Fed's core goals are employment stability and inflation control [2]. - The dollar index may maintain a consolidation trend in the short term, and its future direction depends on the US CPI data next week. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central value of 7.20 [6]. - The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level. The trading volume is expected to narrow, and the risk preference and amplitude may decline [8]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and are currently dominated by bulls. Copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish. Zinc is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile. Tin may see a small increase. Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Lead is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation. [12][13][14] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. Iron ore's upward pressure is increasing. Coking coal and coke are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by costs [24][25][28]. - Crude oil is under downward pressure due to the weakening of seasonal demand. LPG is in a weak and volatile state. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand the processing fee at low prices. MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate. PP is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. PE needs to wait for the return of downstream demand. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Fuel oil is weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is bearish. Asphalt is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Urea is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a volatile state. Pulp is in the process of bottom - building. Logs are in a state of position tug - of - war and price oscillation. Propylene is in a low - level oscillation [34][37][39]. - The live - hog market is in a state of strong spot - market game. Oils and fats are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Corn and starch are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. Cotton is expected to be in an oscillatory state. Sugar is expected to maintain a weak state. Eggs are expected to be in a short - term bullish state and can consider reverse spreads [65][67][68]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Market Information: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4% in the first seven months. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1]. - Core Logic: Domestically, the economy is under downward pressure, and it has entered a policy observation window. Exports have rebounded but face downward pressure. Overseas, inflation trends are crucial in the next few months [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate is affected by external and internal factors. The dollar index may be range - bound in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [6]. - Stock Index: The stock index is in a volatile correction phase. The trading volume has increased, and there are some positive factors in the structural level [8]. - Shipping Index: The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, with a higher possibility of a downward or sideways trend in the near - term and a slightly downward trend in the medium - term [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Prices are rising due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is dominated by bulls [12]. - Copper: The price is mainly oscillatory, and investors need to be wary of weak demand [13]. - Zinc: Supported by low LME inventory and the fermentation of rate - cut expectations, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation and bearish in the long - term [14]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term [15]. - Tin: The price has a small increase, and there is a possibility of further upward movement [16]. - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to be in a wide - range and slightly bullish state due to supply - side disturbances [18]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: They are expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. Industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are loose [20]. - Lead: It is in a state of long - short divergence, and the short - term trend is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [21]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils: They are supported by costs and are in an oscillatory state. The supply of five major steel products has decreased, and demand has increased, with inventory accumulating [24]. - Iron Ore: The price is in a high - level oscillation, and the upward pressure is increasing [25]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking coal market has production disturbances, and the coke market has room for price increases. They are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term [28]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They are supported by costs. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the long - term demand is affected by the real - estate market [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price has dropped for six consecutive days. The fundamentals are mixed, and there is a risk of supply surplus as seasonal demand weakens [34]. - LPG: The cost is falling, and the supply is loose. The demand has a slight improvement, and the 09 contract is weak [37]. - PTA - PX: The price has fallen. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA may have a supply - demand gap in August. It is recommended to buy to expand the processing fee at low prices [39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: They are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand contradiction of MEG is not significant, and the bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost [41]. - PP: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is under pressure from new - device production, and the demand is weak [44]. - PE: It is affected by external factors. The current pressure is large, but there is an expectation of demand recovery in August [47]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: They are expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement. Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and styrene's supply is expected to be in surplus in August - September [48][50]. - Fuel Oil: It is weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has a slight increase. The domestic FU market is under downward pressure [51]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has fallen due to the drag of crude oil. The supply is low, and the demand is weak [52]. - Asphalt: It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds [53]. - Urea: It is under pressure. The futures have fallen, and the spot market is under pressure, but there is support from exports [55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, & Caustic Soda: They are in a volatile state. Soda ash has a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern. Glass is in a weak - balance state. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase [56][58][59]. - Pulp: It is in the process of bottom - building. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has seasonal support [60]. - Logs: The price is in an oscillation state. The 07 - contract delivery data provides a reference for future delivery, and the delivery cost is rising [61]. - Propylene: The spot price has increased, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight change [63]. Agricultural Products - Live Hogs: The price is weak and stable. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider reverse spreads [65]. - Oils and Fats: They are expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state. Palm oil has a loose balance sheet, soybean oil has a good outlook for de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is in short - term consolidation [67]. - Corn & Starch: They are expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly bearish state. The corn price is stable or slightly weak, and starch is affected by cost and demand [68]. - Cotton: It is expected to be in an oscillatory state. The new - year US cotton signing is poor, and the domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be tight at the end of the year [69]. - Sugar: It is expected to maintain a weak state. Brazil's sugar export has decreased, and India may allow sugar exports in the new season [70]. - Eggs: They are expected to be in a short - term bullish state. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and reverse spreads can be considered [72].
金融期货早评-20250808
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-08 01:41