Report Summary Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling was below expectations. There is panic among retail and second - fattening groups. With increased planned group slaughter in August and limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. Daily trading volume has been poor recently, making it difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the tenth trading day will enter the second position - limit period. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the premium - narrowing market. Given the strong macro - support for the far - end and the pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, the spread structure maintains a reverse spread strategy. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Points from Different Sections 1. Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 13,980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [2] - Futures Prices: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; Pig 2511 is 14,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton; Pig 2601 is 14,395 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For the Pig 2509 contract, the trading volume is 10,165 lots, down 5,586 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 28,730 lots, down 2,933 lots. For Pig 2511, the trading volume is 34,709 lots, up 5,027 lots, and the open interest is 59,598 lots, up 626 lots. For Pig 2601, the trading volume is 11,629 lots, down 2,014 lots, and the open interest is 43,157 lots, up 713 lots [2] - Spreads: The basis of Pig 2509 is 110 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; Pig 2511 is - 120 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton; Pig 2601 is - 415 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 9 - 11 is - 230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; Pig 11 - 1 is - 295 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]
生猪：成交偏差，维持反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-08 01:41