白糖：震荡期

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is in a period of oscillation, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.01 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, down 20; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan/ton, down 16. The 91 spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 27; the 15 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 18; the mainstream spot basis is 283 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; the monsoon rainfall in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 42 million tons of sugar in June [1] 3.3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season will be 1.116 billion tons, consumption will be 1.58 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - making season, production will be 1.12 billion tons, consumption will be 1.59 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons (+120 million tons), cumulative sales were 811 million tons (+152 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 251 million tons (-65 million tons) [2] 3.4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previously 488 million tons). As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons (-159 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 3.49 billion tons, up from 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (+540 million tons). The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.008 billion tons (+127 million tons) [3]