中辉有色观点-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - Basic Logic: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - Industrial Logic: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - Market Review: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - Strategy Recommendation: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - Industrial Logic: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - Industrial Logic: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - Industrial Logic: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - Strategy Recommendation: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]