Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: With the repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to build long positions at low levels [2]. - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to good exports and the rise of US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may follow and rebound [2]. - Soybean: During the position transfer period, the market will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will operate weakly [2]. - Sugar: It is in an oscillation period [2]. - Cotton: It will fluctuate in a narrow range [2]. - Eggs: There is a rebound sentiment in the spot market [2]. - Pigs: The trading volume is poor, and the reverse spread strategy should be maintained [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,950 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.22%, and 9,012 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume decreased by 112,797 hands, and the open interest decreased by 27,119 hands. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 50 yuan/ton [4]. - News: Malaysian palm oil giant SD Guthrie Berhad expects the crude palm oil price to stabilize at around 4,000 ringgit per ton for the rest of the year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy [5][6]. Soybean oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,406 yuan/ton both during the day and at night, with no change. The trading volume increased by 51,881 hands, and the open interest decreased by 49,208 hands. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 264 yuan/ton [4]. - News: As of July 31, 2025, the net increase in US soybean oil export sales was 0.7 million tons, meeting expectations [10]. Soybean meal - Fundamentals: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 3,031 yuan/ton during the day with an increase of 0.13%, and 3,036 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 0.53%. The trading volume of soybean meal in the main producing areas was 9.6 million tons per day, and the inventory was 97.76 million tons per week [15]. - News: On August 7, CBOT soybeans rose due to strong export sales data. As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 fiscal years exceeded expectations [17]. Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2509 was 2,267 yuan/ton during the day with an increase of 0.53%, and 2,260 yuan/ton at night with a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume decreased by 44,239 hands, and the open interest decreased by 37,908 hands. The spot price in Jinzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton [18]. - News: The northern corn collection price remained stable, and the Northeast enterprise corn price declined slightly [19]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.03 cents per pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,667 yuan/ton [21]. - News: Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress accelerated, and India's monsoon precipitation was higher than the long - period average. CAOC predicted the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 fiscal years [21][22]. Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,835 yuan/ton during the day with a decrease of 0.11%, and 13,825 yuan/ton at night with a decrease of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased by 52,459 hands, and the open interest decreased by 2,804 hands. The spot price of cotton in most regions changed slightly [25]. - News: The domestic cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the ICE cotton futures fell due to the rising US dollar and weak new - crop exports [26][27]. Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,391 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 1.16%, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,576 yuan/500 kg with a decrease of 1.41%. The spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [32]. Pigs - Fundamentals: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased. The closing prices of futures contracts such as LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 increased year - on - year. The trading volume of LH2509 decreased, while that of LH2511 increased. The market is under pressure, and the reverse - spread strategy is maintained [35][37]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The spot prices of peanuts in major producing areas were mostly stable, with the price of Sudan refined peanuts increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The closing prices of PK510 and PK511 increased slightly. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increased [39]. - News: New peanuts in some areas are gradually on the market, and the current price is stable. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [40].
棕榈油:宏观情绪反复,低位布多为主,豆油:高位震荡,关注中美贸易协议
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-08 01:52